Investing in recruitment companies

Investing in recruitment companies
Get prepared for a wild ride if you want to buy into the job market.
David Kimberley
Published
October 20, 2021

Recruitment consultants don’t have the best reputation. Terrible suits, unctuous phone calls, and lots of sales talk mean they aren’t usually the people most of us enjoy working with.

And yet, like many other intermediaries in business, they play a vital function in the economy by matching prospective employers with new employees. 

Doing this can also be big business as successful placements result in more money for the recruitment company. Indeed, in the year prior to Covid, the UK alone made recruitment companies in excess of £40bn.


Boom and bust


That amount of cash floating about means there are some large companies active in the recruitment sector, many of which are listed. 

The big names here are Hays and PageGroup, although others, like Robert Walters and SThree, have been popular with investors over the past few years too.

All of those companies have had a strange couple of years. It goes without saying that Covid was disastrous for the recruitment sector. 

Profits at Hays dropped from £162m to £47.5m. It was a similar story at PageGroup, where profits fell to £17m from £147m the year before, a nearly 90% decline.


Bouncing back


But the sector appears to be bouncing back as the global economy starts to reopen following vaccine drives.

In the UK, there are over 1.1m vacancies and the unemployment rate is 4.5%, a slight increase on the pre-pandemic figure of 4%.

This is naturally driving more business to recruitment companies. Hays noted in a trading update earlier this month that it had hired 1,200 members of staff in 2021 alone to deal with this surge in demand. Even then, it said productivity per staff member was still at a record high.

It’s a similar story with PageGroup, which has hired over 600 people so far this year. The firm predicted a full-year operating profit of £155m in early October, which would be a record if it does happen.

Hostage to macroeconomics


Such dramatic drops and increases in earnings are unusual but also indicative of the cyclical nature of the recruitment business.

When the economy is doing poorly, the odds are recruitment firms are going to suffer. A booming economy is likely to produce the opposite result.

The past couple of years have provided an extreme example of that process but the principles still apply and need to be considered before investing into a recruitment company.

Read More:
A guide to investing in commodities
What bad graphs and samurais can teach us about investing
Five alternative income sources for investors


Hays’ share price performance over the past 20 years is illustrative of this. It peaked during the Dot Com boom, then crashed when the bubble burst. After that it rose slightly before crashing again during the 2008 financial crisis. 

Since then Brexit and the pandemic have also hit its share price. Despite some reversals, Hays shares have never reached the same level they did during the Dot Com bubble. Anyone buying shares at that peak would’ve lost a substantial amount, even if they’d held them until today and received all dividends paid out.

Past performance doesn’t define future results but that suggests that thinkingHays, along with other recruitment stocks, is an awesome ‘buy’ just because the jobs market is doing well today can easily lead to losses if that trend reverses. 


Not your regular ‘buy-and-hold’ stock


It’s also pretty hard to predict when or if there’s going to be a downturn. How many people actually predicted the coronavirus crash, for example?

One positive of companies like Hays and PageGroup is they’re highly cash generative and have been fairly consistent in paying out dividends.

Ideally those payments would smooth out the rough times to compensate for any resulting declines in share price. But as we’ve seen with Hays, that’s not always going to happen.

As a result, buying into a recruitment company doesn’t necessarily follow the same buy and hold pattern that we tend to associate with sensible long-term investing. They’re so subject to market forces that positive gains can be wiped out very quickly.

Speculative investors may be able to ride out the gains they see during the good times but can easily get burned if things come crashing down unexpectedly. 

Long-term investors might see some gains but they’ll need to prepared for some major bumps along the way.

Buying into the job market boom? Let us know on the community forum:

Join the discussion on the Freetrade community forum

We believe investing should be accessible to everyone. Whether you are a complete beginner or an experienced investor, there’s something for you at every step of your journey. We’ve covered choosing the right investment app, what are dividends and how to invest in ETFs. You’ll also find step by step guides on buying and selling stocks, as well as an ISA explainer and a ‘SIPP vs ISA’ guide to help you decide which account is best for you. Download our iOS trading app or if you’re an Android user, download our Android trading app to get started investing.


Important Information

This should not be read as personal investment advice and individual investors should make their own decisions or seek independent advice.

When you invest, your capital is at risk. The value of your portfolio, and any income you receive, can go down as well as up and you may get back less than you invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Eligibility to invest into an ISA and the value of tax savings depends on personal circumstances and all tax rules may change.

Freetrade is a trading name of Freetrade Limited, which is a member firm of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England and Wales (no. 09797821).

Related articles

Most read

Simple pricing plans

Choose how you'd like to pay:

Annually

Save 17%

Monthly

Annually

Save 17%

Monthly

£0.00/mo

Accounts

GIA pink
General investment account

Benefits

  • Commission-free trades (other charges may apply. See full pricing table.)
  • Trade USD & EUR stocks at the exchange rate + a 0.99% FX fee
  • Fractional US Shares
  • Access to more than 4,700 stocks, including the most popular shares and ETFs
  • 1% AER on up to £1,000 uninvested cash
£4.99/mo

£59.88 billed annually

£5.99/mo

Billed monthly

Accounts

GIA white
General investment account
ISA
Stocks and shares ISA

Benefits
Everything in Basic, plus:

  • Full range of over 6,200 US, UK and EU stocks and ETFs
  • Trade USD & EUR stocks at the exchange rate + a 0.59% FX fee
  • Automated order types, including recurring orders
  • Advanced stock fundamentals
  • 3% AER on up to £2,000 uninvested cash
£9.99/mo

£119.88 billed annually

£11.99/mo

Billed monthly

Accounts

GIA white
General investment account
ISA
Stocks and shares ISA
SIPP white
Self-invested personal pension (SIPP)

Benefits
Everything in Standard, plus:

  • Trade USD & EUR stocks at the exchange rate + a 0.39% FX fee
  • Priority customer service
  • Freetrade Web beta
  • 5% AER on up to £3,000 uninvested cash

Download the app to start investing now



When you invest your capital is at risk.